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Unit 10 · ProbabilityPearson Edexcel IGCSE · 4MA1 Higher

Probability — Trees, Venn Diagrams & Set Theory

Tree diagrams, conditional probability, Venn diagrams, set notation. Both papers test probability.

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Corbett MathsTree diagrams and conditional probability
Corbett MathsVenn diagrams and set notation
GCSE Maths TutorVenn Diagrams & Set Theory | GCSE Maths Tutor
GCSE Maths TutorProbability Trees (Dependent Combined Events) | Conditional Probability | Grade 6+ | GCSE Maths Tutor
Key facts & methods

Probability rules and tree diagrams — fill in the table

RuleDetail
P(A and B)
P(A or B)
Mutually exclusive events
Conditional probability
Tree diagrams
Without replacement

Venn diagrams and set theory — fill in the table

Notation / conceptMeaning
A ∪ B (union)
A ∩ B (intersection)
A' (complement)
P(A ∪ B)
Venn diagram regions
Sum rule
Expected frequency
Exam questions — 4 questions · 10 marks · Edexcel 4MA1 style
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4 marksTree diagram — without replacement4MA1 style 🔢 Calculator

A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue counters. Two counters are taken without replacement. Calculate (a) P(both red) (b) P(one of each colour). (4 marks)

Hint: (a) Multiply the two branch probabilities. After taking one red, there are 4 red out of 7 remaining. (b) Two routes: R then B, or B then R — multiply each route then add.
+40 XP
4 marksVenn diagram problemGrade 7 Booklet style ✏️ No calculator

In a class of 30 students: 18 study French (F), 12 study Spanish (S), 5 study both. (a) Draw a Venn diagram and fill in all regions. (b) P(student studies French but not Spanish). (c) P(studies neither). (4 marks)

Hint: Fill in the intersection (both) first: 5. Then: only F = 18−5, only S = 12−5. Neither = total − all in circles.
+40 XP
4 marksConditional probability4MA1 style ✏️ No calculator

Two events A and B. P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(A ∩ B) = 0.3. (a) Find P(A ∪ B). (b) Find P(A|B). (c) Are A and B independent? Explain. (4 marks)

Hint: (a) Addition rule. (b) P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B). (c) A and B are independent if P(A|B) = P(A). Check if this holds.
+40 XP
1 markExpected frequency4MA1 style

A biased coin gives heads with probability 0.35. If flipped 200 times, what is the expected number of heads?

A 35
B 65
C 70
D 100
1 markMutually exclusive events4MA1 style

Events A and B are mutually exclusive. P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.25. What is P(A or B)?

A 0.075
B 0.55
C 0.45
D 0.475
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